Types of Policy Communication

“Types of Policy Communication” Please respond to the following:

  • Explain at least two factors policy makers use when evaluating information provided to them in policy reports.
  • Explain why it is important for an analyst to know when to create a policy memorandum versus an executive summary when presenting information.

“Unique among textbooks, Dunn puts problematization and problem structuring center stage as the major driver in each field of the policy-analytic domain. As usual, Dunn skillfully blends (social) scien- tific insight, epistemological sophistication, methodological finesse and practical savvy.”

Robert Hoppe, University of Twente, The Netherlands

“This new edition continues the tradition of excellence established by previous editions and updates the text, references and examples to ensure its continuing relevance to the contemporary world of policy analysis in governments, the NGO and private sectors. ”

Michael Howlett, Simon-Fraser University, Canada

“William Dunn effectively illustrates methodology and methods of policy analysis with real-world case materials and examples at the local, national and international levels. It remains the best guide for both undergraduate and graduate courses out there.”

Keun Namkoong, Former President of Seoul Tech and of Korean Association for Public Administration, South Korea

“Very impressive book and will continue to use this as a must read book for my students aspiring to become respectable policy analysts.”

Sofian Effendi, Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia

 

 

Public Policy Analysis, the most widely cited book on the subject, provides students with a comprehensive methodology of policy analysis. It starts from the premise that policy analysis is an applied social science discipline designed for solving practical problems facing public and nonprofit organizations. This thor- oughly revised sixth edition contains a number of important updates:

 Each chapter includes an all-new “big ideas” case study in policy analysis to stimulate student interest in timely and important problems.

 The dedicated chapter on evidence-based policy and the role of field experiments has been thoroughly rewritten and expanded.

 New sections on important developments in the field have been added, including using scientific evidence in public policymaking, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and “big data.”

 Data sets to apply analytical techniques are included online as IBM SPSS 23.0 files and are convertible to Excel, Stata, and R statistical software programs to suit a variety of course needs and teaching styles.

 All-new PowerPoint slides are included to make instructor preparation easier than ever before.

Designed to prepare students from a variety of academic backgrounds to conduct policy analysis on their own, without requiring a background in microeconomics, Public Policy Analysis, Sixth Edition helps students develop the practical skills needed to communicate findings through memos, position papers, and other forms of structured analytical writing. The text engages students by challenging them to criti- cally analyze the arguments of policy practitioners as well as political scientists, economists, and political philosophers.

William N. Dunn is Professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the Univer- sity of Pittsburgh, USA.

Public Policy Analysis

 

 

Public Policy Analysis

An Integrated Approach Sixth Edition

WILLIAM N. DUNN

 

 

Sixth edition published 2018

by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017

and by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

© 2018 Taylor & Francis

The right of William N. Dunn to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

First edition published by Pearson Education, Inc. 1994 Fifth edition published by Routledge 2016

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Dunn, William N., author. Title: Public policy analysis : an integrated approach / by William N. Dunn. Description: Sixth Edition. | New York : Routledge, 2017. | Revised edition of the author’s

Public policy analysis, c2012. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2017008665 | ISBN 9781138743830 (hardback : alk. paper) |

ISBN 9781138743847 (pbk. : alk. paper) | ISBN 9781315181226 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Policy sciences. | Political planning—Evaluation. Classification: LCC H61 .D882 2017 | DDC 320.6—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017008665

ISBN: 978-1-138-74383-0 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-138-74384-7 (pbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-18122-6 (ebk)

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Visit the eResources: www.routledge.com/9781138743847

 

 

In memory of Donald T. Campbell

 

 

PART I Methodology of Policy Analysis 1

CHAPTER 1 The Process of Policy Analysis 2

CHAPTER 2 Policy Analysis in the Policymaking Process 30

PART II Methods of Policy Analysis 67

CHAPTER 3 Structuring Policy Problems 68

CHAPTER 4 Forecasting Expected Policy Outcomes 118

CHAPTER 5 Prescribing Preferred Policies 189

CHAPTER 6 Monitoring Observed Policy Outcomes 250

CHAPTER 7 Evaluating Policy Performance 320

PART III Methods of Policy Communication 347

CHAPTER 8 Developing Policy Arguments 348

CHAPTER 9 Communicating Policy Analysis 391

APPENDIX 1 Policy Issue Papers 433

APPENDIX 2 Executive Summaries 440

APPENDIX 3 Policy Memoranda 444

APPENDIX 4 Planning Oral Briefings 450

BRIEF CONTENTS

ix

 

 

x

EXHIBIT 3.1 Policy Stakeholder Analysis: The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) 110

BOX 5.1 The Over-Advocacy Trap 192

EXHIBIT C6.1 Fatalities and Other Variables in the United States, 1966–2015 318

EXHIBIT C6.2 Fatalities per 100,000 Persons, 1970–1976 319

EXHIBIT 8.1 Identifying and Arranging Elements of

a Policy Argument 353

EXHIBIT 8.2 Guidelines for Interpreting Arguments 380

BOX 9.1 Producing Policy Analysis—A Poorly Managed Lumber Mill 392

BOX 9.2 Contingent Communication 397

BOX 9.3 Checklist for an Oral Briefing 409

USEFUL CONCEPTS, GUIDES, AND CHECKLISTS

BOX CONTENTS

 

 

xi

LESSONS FROM PRACTICE

CASE STUDY CONTENTS

Are Policy Analysts Technocrats? 61

Brainstorming across Disciplines: The Elevator Problem 116

Communicating Complex Analyses to Multiple Audiences: Regulating Leaded Gasoline 415

Forecasting MARTA Receipts 185

Images, Arguments, and the Second Persian Gulf Crisis, 1990–1991 387

Mapping International Security and Energy Crises 27

Monitoring Policy Outcomes: The Political Economy of Traffic Fatalities in Europe and the United States 317

Monitoring the Uses of Policy Analysis 65

Multimethod Forecasting: Syria Chemical Weapons 187

Opportunity Costs of Saving Lives—The 55 mph Speed Limit 244

Pros and Cons of Balkan Intervention 386

Structuring Problems of Risk: Safety in Mines and on Highways 112

The Economics of Morality: Evaluating Living Wage Policies 345

The Ethics of Cake Cutting 344

The Goeller Scorecard and Technological Change 23

The Spreadsheet and Scorecard—Evaluating Benefits and Costs of Energy Policies 243

Translating Policy Arguments into Issue Papers, Position Papers, and Letters to the Editor—The Case of the Second Persian Gulf War 410

Using Influence Diagrams and Decision Trees to Structure Problems of Energy and Highway Safety Policy 25

Visual Signatures in Regression Analysis: The Anscombe Quartet 184

 

 

xii

1.1 Multidisciplinary Policy Analysis 6

1.2 Forms of Policy Analysis 11

1.3 Opportunity Costs of Using Multiple Methods 18

1.4 Elements of a Policy Argument 20

C1.2.1 Influence Diagram and Decision Tree 26

C1.3.1 Simple Argument Maps Are Static and Uncontested 28

C1.3.2 Complex Argument Maps Are Dynamic and Contested 29

2.1 Complexity, Feedback, and Short Circuiting in the Policymaking Process 46

2.2 Policy-Relevant Knowledge and Associated Methods 55

3.1 The Process of Problem Structuring 71

3.2 Hierarchy of Types of Policy Issues 74

3.3 Phases of Problem Structuring 79

3.4 A Symbolic Model 85

3.5 Simulation or Procedural Model 85

3.6 Assumed Effects of X on Y from One Perspective 87

3.7 Map of Transportation Points in Central Region 88

3.8 Solution for Nine-Dot Problem 88

3.9 Pareto Chart—Estimated Boundary of Problem 92

3.10 Set Union 95

3.11 Set Intersection 96

3.12 Classification Scheme 96

3.13 Cross break 96

3.14 Hierarchy Analysis of the Causes of Fires 98

3.15 The Process of Assumptional Analysis 105

3.16 Plausibility and Importance of Warrant about Opportunity Costs of Driving at Lower Speeds 107

C3.1 Pareto Chart—Cumulative Frequency of Rival Causes 114

C3.2 Pareto Chart—Cumulative Frequency of Criteria for Evaluating Research on Risk 116

4.1 Processes of Intuition (System I) and Reasoning (System II) 120

4.2 Three Types of Societal Futures: Potential, Plausible, and Normative 124

4.3 The Logic of Trend Extrapolation: Inductive Reasoning 126

4.4 The Logic of Theoretical Prediction: Deductive Reasoning 127

4.5 The Logic of Possible Futures: Abductive Reasoning 127

4.6 Demonstration of a Secular Trend: Total Arrests per 1,000 Persons in Chicago, 1940–1970 130

4.7 Demonstration of Cyclical Fluctuations: Total Arrests per 1,000 Persons in Chicago, 1868–1970 131

4.8 Two Properties of Linear Regression 132

4.9 Five Classes of Nonlinear Time Series 138

4.10 Growth of Federal Government Organizations in the United States by Presidential Term, 1789–1973 139

4.11 Linear versus Growth Trends 141

4.12 Four Types of Causal Arguments 149

4.13 Arrow Diagram Illustrating the Causal Structure of an Argument 152

FIGURES FOR ORGANIZING THINKING

VISUAL DISPLAY CONTENTS

 

 

Visual Display Contents xiii

4.14 Path Diagram Illustrating a Model of Public Choice Theory 154

4.15 Scatterplot Illustrating Different Patterns and Relations between Hypothetical Annual Maintenance Costs and Annual Mileage per Vehicle 157

C4.1.1 The Anscombe Quartet 184

C4.3.1 Multimethod Forecast of Chemical Weapons in Syria 187

5.1 Cost–effectiveness comparisons using four criteria of adequacy 199

5.2 Income Inequality: Percentage Share of Top 10 Percent of U.S. and European Households in National Income, 1900–2010 201

5.3 Three Types of Goods in the Public and Private Sectors 206

5.4 Supply and Demand Curves and the Equilibrium Price–Quantity Combination 207

5.5 Classification of Costs and Benefits According to Four Types of Questions 212

5.6 Objectives Tree for National Energy Policy 221

5.7 Value-Critical Discourse 224

5.8 Simplified Partial Cost Model for Total Initial Investment 227

5.9 Constraints Map for National Energy Policy 230

5.10 Comparison of Discounted and Undiscounted Costs Cumulated for Two Programs with Equal Effectiveness 232

5.11 Threats to the Plausibility of Claims about the Benefits of the 55 mph Speed Limit 237

6.1 Causal Mechanism: Inputs, Activities, Outputs, Outcomes, and Impacts 255

6.2 Steps in Conducting a Systematic Review or Meta-Analysis 275

6.3 Two Graphic Displays of Motor Vehicle Deaths 277

6.4 Spurious and Plausible Interpretations of Data 279

6.5 Bar Graph Showing Municipal Personnel Costs Per Capita for Cities with Growing and Declining Populations and for New York City 279

6.6 Histogram and Frequency Polygon: Number of Persons below the Poverty Threshold by Age Group in 1977 280

6.7 Lorenz Curve Showing the Distribution of Family Personal Income in the United States in 1975 and 1989 281

6.8 Interrupted Time Series Showing Effects and No Effects 295

6.9 Connecticut Traffic Deaths before and after the 1956 Crackdown on Speeding 296

6.10 Extended Time-Series Graph 297

6.11 Control-Series Graph 298

6.12 Threats to Validity as Objections to the Argument That the Speeding Crackdown Was Worthwhile 300

6.13 Tie-Breaking Experiment 304

6.14 Results of Regression-Discontinuity Analysis 310

8.1 Structure of a Policy Argument 350

8.2 Argument Map—Privatizing Transportation 352

8.3 Argumentation from Authority—Unintended Consequences of the U.S.–NATO Attack on Serbia 357

8.4 Argumentation from Method— Intransitivity of Preferences for Nuclear Power 358

8.5 Argumentation from Generalization—A “False Positive” About the Success of Community Nutrition 361

8.6 Argumentation from Classification— Challenging Claims about Authoritarian Rule and Terrorism 363

8.7 Argumentation from Theoretical Cause— Competing Deductive-Nomological Explanations of the Cuban Missile Crisis 365

 

 

Visual Display Contentsxiv

8.8 Argumentation from Practical Cause—Rival Explanations of the Effects of the Connecticut Crackdown on Speeding 368

8.9 Argumentation from Sign—Quantitative Indicators Such as Correlation Coefficients and P-Values Do Not “Prove” Causation 370

8.10 Argumentation from Motivation—Support for the Equal Rights Amendment 372

8.11 Argumentation from Intuition—A Counter- intuitive Solution Avoids Certain Death 374

8.12 Argumentation from Analogy—The Equal Rights Amendment and False Analogy 375

8.13 Argumentation from Parallel Case—The Dutch Model and False Parallel 376

8.14 Argumentation from Ethics—Income Distribution and Justice as Fairness 377

C8.2.1 Senate Arguments Supporting and Opposing U.S. Involvement under Security Council Resolution 678 Authorizing Military Intervention to Force the Withdrawal of Iraq from Kuwait (November 29, 1990) 389

9.1 The Process of Policy Communication 393

9.2 Methods for Developing a Policy Memo or Issue Paper 401

C9.1.1 Sample Argument Map 411

C9.1.2 Argument Map for a Position Paper 412

C9.1.3 Argument Map for Policy Brief on the Invasion of Iraq 412

C9.1.4 Argument Map for a Policy Issue Paper or Policy Memo on the Invasion of Iraq 413

C9.1.5 Argument Map for a Letter to the Editor 414

9.3 Data samples with correlations but different regression lines 420

C9.2.1 Lead Use in Gasoline Production and Average NHANES II Blood Lead Levels 430

A.4.1 Options–Impacts Matrix 453

A.4.2 Bar Chart Display of Results of 1992 Presidential Election 454

A.4.3 Pie Chart Display of Results of 1992 Presidential Election 454

A.4.4 Frequency Histogram Displaying Ages of Women at Time of Divorce (N = 100) 455

A.4.5 Relative Frequency Histogram Displaying Ages of Women at Time of Divorce (N = 100) 455

A.4.6 Ogive Displaying Ages of Women at Time of Divorce (N = 100) 456

A.4.7 Scatterplot Displaying Pattern of Observations around Regression Line 456

A.4.8 Interrupted Time-Series Graph Displaying Effects of the 55 mph Speed Limit 457

TABLES FOR ORGANIZING THINKING

C1.1 Scorecard 24

2.1 Phases of the Policymaking Process 45

2.2 The Voters’ Paradox 49

3.1 Differences in the Structure of Three Classes of Policy Problems 76

3.2 Characteristics of Methods of Problem Structuring 90

3.3 Percent of Persons Living below the Poverty Level by Age Group, 1970–2014 94

4.1 Three Approaches to Forecasting 128

4.2 Time-Series Data on Total Energy Consumption Used in Linear Regression 133

4.3 Linear Regression with an Even-Numbered Series 135

4.4 Square Root and Logarithm of a Time Series Exhibiting Rapid Growth 144

4.5 Linear Regression with Logarithmic Transformation of Time Series 146

4.6 Worksheet for Estimating Future Maintenance Costs from Annual Mileage per Vehicle 159

 

 

Visual Display Contents xv

4.7 Calculation of Standard Error of Estimated Maintenance Costs 161

4.8 Types of Items and Scales Used in a Policy Delphi Questionnaire 169

4.9 Hypothetical Responses in First-Round Policy Delphi: Desirability and Feasibility of Drug-Control Objectives 170

4.10 Cross-Impact Matrix Illustrating Consequences of Mass Automobile Use 173

4.11 Hypothetical Illustration of the First Round (Play) in a Cross-Impact Matrix 175

4.12 Feasibility Assessment of Two Fiscal Policy Alternatives 178

4.13 Recommendations for Evidence-Based Forecasting 180

C4.2.1 MARTA Receipts, 1973–2010 185

5.1 Transitive and Intransitive Preferences 195

5.2 Criteria of Adequacy: Four Types of Problems 198

5.3 Comparison of Benefit–Cost Ratio and Net Benefits as Criteria of Adequacy (in Thousands of Dollars) 202

5.4 Contrasts between Goals and Objectives 214

5.5 Ten Tasks in Conducting a Cost–Benefit Analysis 215

5.6 Methods of Prescription 220

5.7 Cost Element Structure 225

5.8 Internal, External, and Total Costs of Maternal Care 231

5.9 Calculation of Present Value of Cost Stream at 10 Percent Discount Rate over 5 Years (in Millions of Dollars) 234

5.10 Sensitivity Analysis of Gasoline Prices on Costs of Training Programs 236

C5.1 Scorecard and Spreadsheet 243

C5.2 Analysis of the Costs and Benefits of the 55 mph Speed Limit 245

6.1 Inputs, Activities, Outputs, Outcomes, and Impacts in Three Issue Areas 256

6.2 Contrasts among Six Approaches to Monitoring 258

6.3 Some Representative Social Indicators 261

6.4 Sample Case-Coding Scheme: Representative Indicators and Coding Categories 271

6.5 Research Survey Method: Empirical Generalizations, Action Guidelines, and Levels of Confidence in Generalizations 272

6.6 Methods Appropriate to Five Approaches to Monitoring 276

6.7 Grouped Frequency Distribution: Number of Persons below the Poverty Threshold by Age Group in 1977 280

6.8 Computation of Gini Concentration Ratio for Violent Crimes Known to Police per 100,000 Persons in 1976 283

6.9 Poverty Rates in 1968, 1990, and 2006 by Age and Race 284

6.10 Number of Drunk Driving Re-arrests in Treatment and Control Groups 285

6.11 Use of Consumer Price Index (1982–1984 = 100) to Compute Purchasing Power Index 286

6.12 Real Weekly Wages in the U.S., 2001– 2010 287

6.13 Maximum Concentration of Pollutants Reported in Chicago, Philadelphia, and San Francisco for Averaging Times of 5 Minutes and 1 Year 288

6.14 Implicitly Weighted Aggregative Quantity Index to Measure Changes in Pollutants in the United States, 1970–1975 289

6.15 Duration of Exposure to Pollutants and Consequent Damage to Health and the Environment 290

6.16 Calculation of Odds-Ratio (Using Data from Table 6.10) 292

6.17 Calculation of Binary Effect Size Display (BESD) and Risk-Ratio (R-R) 292

6.18 Calculation of Standardized Mean Difference (Cohen’s d) 293

 

 

Visual Display Contentsxvi

6.19 Worksheet for Regression and Correlation: Investment in Training Programs and Subsequent Employment of Trainees 301

6.20 Distribution of Cities by Scores on a Hypothetical Index of Pollution Severity 305

6.21 Results of Regression-Discontinuity Analysis for Hypothetical Experimental and Control Cities 306

6.22 Crimes Committed in the United States: Offenses Known to Police per 100,000 Persons, 1985–2009 312

6.23 Murders in New York City, 1985–2009 312

6.24 Percentage Distribution of Family Personal Income in the United States by Quintiles, 1975, 1989, 2006, 2015 312

7.1 Basic Value Typology: Terminal and Instrumental Values 328

7.2 Criteria for Evaluation 333

7.3 Three Approaches to Evaluation 334

7.4 Types of Formal Evaluation 336

7.5 Techniques for Evaluation by Three Approaches 342

7.6 Interview Protocol for User-Survey Analysis 342

C7.2.1 Hourly Wages 345

C7.2.2 Monthly Expenses 346

8.1 Modes of Policy Argumentation with Reasoning Patterns 355

8.2 Guidelines for Identifying Invalid Arguments and Fallacies 382

9.1 Two Kinds of Policy Disciplines 399

C9.2.1 Basic Regression Model for Estimating the Effects of Gasoline Lead on Blood Lead 431

C9.2.2 Present Values of Costs and Benefits of Final Rule, 1985–1992 (Millions of 1983 Dollars) 432

 

 

xvii

DETAILED CONTENTS

Preface xxvii Acknowledgements xxix

Part I Methodology of Policy Analysis 1

CHAPTER 1

The Process of Policy Analysis 2 Learning Objectives 2

Introduction 3

Methodology of Policy Inquiry 3

Multidisciplinary Policy Analysis 4 Policy-Relevant Knowledge 5

Figure 1.1 Multidisciplinary Policy Analysis 6

Knowledge Transformations 7 Policy-Analytic Methods 8

Forms of Policy Analysis 10 Prospective and Retrospective Analysis 10

Figure 1.2 Forms of Policy Analysis 11

Descriptive and Normative Analysis 13 Problem Structuring and Problem Solving 14 Integrated and Segmented Analysis 14

The Practice of Policy Analysis 15 Reconstructed Logic versus Logic-in-Use 15 Methodological Opportunity Costs 16

Figure 1.3 Opportunity Costs of Using Multiple Methods 18

Critical Thinking and Public Policy 19 The Structure of Policy Arguments 19

Figure 1.4 Elements of a Policy Argument 20

Chapter Summary 22

Review Questions 22

Demonstration Exercises 22

Bibliography 23 Case 1.1 The Goeller Scorecard and Technological Change 23 Table C1.1 Scorecard 24 Case 1.2 Using Influence Diagrams and Decision Trees to Structure Problems of Energy and Highway Safety Policy 25

Figure C1.2.1 Influence Diagram and Decision Tree 26

Case 1.3 Mapping International Security and Energy Crises 27

Figure C1.3.1 Simple Argument Maps Are Static and Uncontested 28 Figure C1.3.2 Complex Argument Maps Are Dynamic and Contested 29

CHAPTER 2

Policy Analysis in the Policymaking Process 30 Learning Objectives 30

Introduction 31

The Historical Context 31 Early Origins 32 The Nineteenth-Century Transformation 34 Twentieth-Century Professionalization 36 The Era of Evidence-Based Policy 40

 

 

Detailed Contentsxviii

The Policymaking Process 42 Table 2.1 Phases of the Policymaking Process 45

Figure 2.1 Complexity, Feedback, and Short Circuiting in the Policymaking Process 46

Models of Policy Change 47 The Comprehensive Rationality Model 47 Second-Best Rationality 48

Table 2.2 The Voters’ Paradox 49 Disjointed Incrementalism 50 Bounded Rationality 50 Erotetic Rationality 51 Simultaneous Convergence 52 Punctuated Equilibrium 53

Policy Analysis in the Policymaking Process 54

Potential Uses of Analysis 54 Figure 2.2 Policy-Relevant Knowledge and Associated Methods 55

Uses of Analysis in Practice 57

Chapter Summary 59

Review Questions 59

Demonstration Exercises 59

Bibliography 60 Case 2.1 Are Policy Analysts Technocrats? 61 Case 2.2 Monitoring the Uses of Policy Analysis 65

Part II Methods of Policy Analysis 67

CHAPTER 3

Structuring Policy Problems 68 Learning Objectives 68

Introduction 69

Nature of Policy Problems 69 Problem Solving versus Problem Structuring 69

Figure 3.1 The Process of Problem Structuring 71

Characteristics of Problems 71 Problems versus Issues 73

Figure 3.2 Hierarchy of Types of Policy Issues 74

Three Classes of Policy Problems 75 Table 3.1 Differences in the Structure of Three Classes of Policy Problems 76

Problem Structuring in Policy Analysis 77 Creativity in Problem Structuring 77 Phases of Problem Structuring 78

Figure 3.3 Phases of Problem Structuring 79

Errors of the Third Type (EIII) 80

Policy Models and Problem Structuring 81 Descriptive Models 82 Normative Models 82 Verbal Models 83 Symbolic Models 83 Procedural Models 84

Figure 3.4 A Symbolic Model 85 Figure 3.5 Simulation or Procedural Model 85

Models as Surrogates and Perspectives 86

Figure 3.6 Assumed Effects of X on Y from One Perspective 87 Figure 3.7 Map of Transportation Points in Central Region 88 Figure 3.8 Solution for Nine-Dot Problem 88

Methods of Problem Structuring 89 Boundary Analysis 89

Table 3.2 Characteristics of Methods of Problem Structuring 90 Figure 3.9 Pareto Chart—Estimated Boundary of Problem 92

Classification Analysis 93 Table 3.3 Percent of Persons Living below the Poverty Level by Age Group, 1970–2014 94

 

 

Detailed Contents xix

Figure 3.10 Set Union 95 Figure 3.11 Set Intersection 96 Figure 3.12 Classification Scheme 96 Figure 3.13 Cross break 96

Hierarchy Analysis 96 Figure 3.14 Hierarchy Analysis of the Causes of Fires 98

Synectics 99 Brainstorming 100 Multiple Perspective Analysis 102 Assumptional Analysis 104

Figure 3.15 The Process of Assumptional Analysis 105

Argument Mapping 106 Figure 3.16 Plausibility and Importance of Warrant about Opportunity Costs of Driving at Lower Speeds 107

Chapter Summary 108

Review Questions 108

Demonstration Exercises 108

Bibliography 109 Exhibit 3.1 Policy Stakeholder Analysis: The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) 110 Case 3.1 Structuring Problems of Risk: Safety in Mines and on Highways 112

Figure C3.1 Pareto Chart—Cumulative Frequency of Rival Causes 114 Figure C3.2 Pareto Chart—Cumulative Frequency of Criteria for Evaluating Research on Risk 116

Case 3.2 Brainstorming across Disciplines: The Elevator Problem 116

CHAPTER 4

Forecasting Expected Policy Outcomes 118 Learning Objectives 118

Introduction 119

Forecasting in Policy Analysis 119 The Value of Forecasting 120

Figure 4.1 Processes of Intuition (System I) and Reasoning (System II) 120

Limitations of Forecasting 121 Societal Futures 123

Figure 4.2 Three Types of Societal Futures: Potential, Plausible, and Normative 124

Approaches to Forecasting 124 Aims and Bases of Forecasts 124

Figure 4.3 The Logic of Trend Extrapolation: Inductive Reasoning 126 Figure 4.4 The Logic of Theoretical Prediction: Deductive Reasoning 127 Figure 4.5 The Logic of Possible Futures: Abductive Reasoning 127

Choosing Methods and Techniques 128

Table 4.1 Three Approaches to Forecasting 128

Extrapolative Forecasting 129 Classical Time-Series Analysis 129

Figure 4.6 Demonstration of a Secular Trend: Total Arrests per 1,000 Persons in Chicago, 1940–1970 130 Figure 4.7 Demonstration of Cyclical Fluctuations: Total Arrests per 1,000 Persons in Chicago, 1868–1970 131

Linear Trend Estimation 131 Figure 4.8 Two Properties of Linear Regression 132 Table 4.2 Time-Series Data on Total Energy Consumption Used in Linear Regression 133 Table 4.3 Linear Regression with an Even-Numbered Series 135 Exhibit 4.1 SPSS Output for Tables 4.2 and 4.3 136

Nonlinear Time Series 137 Figure 4.9 Five Classes of Nonlinear Time Series 138 Figure 4.10 Growth of Federal Government Organizations in the

 

 

Detailed Contentsxx

United States by Presidential Term, 1789–1973 139 Figure 4.11 Linear versus Growth Trends 141

Exponential Weighting 142 Data Transformation 142

Table 4.4 Square Root and Logarithm of a Time Series Exhibiting Rapid Growth 144

Catastrophe Methodology 145 Table 4.5 Linear Regression with Logarithmic Transformation of Time Series 146

Theoretical Forecasting 147 Theory Mapping 148

Figure 4.12 Four Types of Causal Arguments 149 Figure 4.13 Arrow Diagram Illustrating the Causal Structure of an Argument 152

Theoretical Modeling 152 Causal Modeling 153

Figure 4.14 Path Diagram Illustrating a Model of Public Choice Theory 154

Regression Analysis 155 Figure 4.15 Scatterplot Illustrating Different Patterns and Relations between Hypothetical Annual Maintenance Costs and Annual Mileage per Vehicle 157 Table 4.6 Worksheet for Estimating Future Maintenance Costs from Annual Mileage per Vehicle 159

Point and Interval Estimation 160 Table 4.7 Calculation of Standard Error of Estimated Maintenance Costs 161

Correlational Analysis 162 Exhibit 4.2 SPSS Output for Table 4.7 164

Judgmental Forecasting 164 The Delphi Technique 165

Table 4.8 Types of Items and Scales Used in a Policy Delphi Questionnaire 169 Table 4.9 Hypothetical Responses in First-Round Policy Delphi: Desirability

and Feasibility of Drug-Control Objectives 170

Cross-Impact Analysis 172 Table 4.10 Cross-Impact Matrix Illustrating Consequences of Mass Automobile Use 173 Table 4.11 Hypothetical Illustration of the First Round (Play) in a Cross-Impact Matrix 175

Feasibility Forecasting 176 Table 4.12 Feasibility Assessment of Two Fiscal Policy Alternatives 178

Evidence-Based Forecasting 180

Table 4.13 Recommendations for Evidence-Based Forecasting 180

Chapter Summary 181

Review Questions 181

Demonstration Exercises 182

Bibliography 182 Case 4.1 Visual Signatures in Regression Analysis: The Anscombe Quartet 184

Figure C4.1.1 The Anscombe Quartet 184

Case 4.2 Forecasting MARTA Receipts 185

Table C4.2.1 MARTA Receipts, 1973–2014 185

Case 4.3 Multimethod Forecasting: Syria Chemical Weapons 187

Figure C4.3.1 Multimethod Forecast of Chemical Weapons in Syria 187

CHAPTER 5

Prescribing Preferred Policies 189 Learning Objectives 189

Introduction 190

Prescription in Policy Analysis 190 Prescription and Policy Advocacy 190 A Simple Model of Choice 191

 

 

Detailed Contents xxi

Box 5.1 The Over-Advocacy Trap 192

A Complex Model of Choice 194 Table 5.1 Transitive and Intransitive Preferences 195

Forms of Rationality 195

Criteria for Policy Prescription 197 Table 5.2 Criteria of Adequacy: Four Types of Problems 198 Figure 5.1 Cost–effectiveness comparisons using four criteria of adequacy 199 Figure 5.2 Income Inequality: Percentage Share of Top 10 Percent of U.S. and European Households in National Income, 1900–2010 201 Table 5.3 Comparison of Benefit– Cost Ratio and Net Benefits as Criteria of Adequacy (in Thousands of Dollars) 202

Approaches to Prescription 204 Public versus Private Choice 205

Figure 5.3 Three Types of Goods in the Public and Private Sectors 206

Supply and Demand 206 Figure 5.4 Supply and Demand Curves and the Equilibrium Price–Quantity Combination 207

Public Choice 208 Cost–Benefit Analysis 209 Types of Costs and Benefits 211

Figure 5.5 Classification of Costs and Benefits According to Four Types of Questions 212

Tasks in Cost–Benefit Analysis 214 Table 5.4 Contrasts between Goals and Objectives 214 Table 5.5 Ten Tasks in Conducting a Cost–Benefit Analysis 215

Cost–Effectiveness Analysis 217

Methods of Prescription 220 Table 5.6 Methods of Prescription 220

Objectives Mapping 221

Figure 5.6 Objectives Tree for National Energy Policy 221

Values Clarification 222 Values Critique 223

Figure 5.7 Value-Critical Discourse 224

Cost Element Structuring 225 Table 5.7 Cost Element Structure 225 Figure 5.8 Simplified Partial Cost Model for Total Initial Investment 227

Cost Estimation 226 Shadow Pricing 226 Constraints Mapping 228 Cost Internalization 229

Figure 5.9 Constraints Map for National Energy Policy 230

Discounting 231 Table 5.8 Internal, External, and Total Costs of Maternal Care 231 Figure 5.10 Comparison of Discounted and Undiscounted Costs Cumulated for Two Programs with Equal Effectiveness 232 Table 5.9 Calculation of Present Value of Cost Stream at 10 Percent Discount Rate over 5 Years (in Millions of Dollars) 234

Sensitivity Analysis 235 Plausibility Analysis 235

Table 5.10 Sensitivity Analysis of Gasoline Prices on Costs of Training Programs 236 Figure 5.11 Threats to the Plausibility of Claims about the Benefits of the 55 mph Speed Limit 237

Chapter Summary 239

Review Questions 240

Demonstration Exercises 241

Bibliography 242 Case 5.1 The Spreadsheet and Scorecard— Evaluating Benefits and Costs of Energy Policies 243

 

 

Detailed Contentsxxii

Table C5.1 Scorecard and Spreadsheet 243

Case 5.2 Opportunity Costs of Saving Lives—The 55 mph Speed Limit 244

Table C5.2 Analysis of the Costs and Benefits of the 55 mph Speed Limit 245

CHAPTER 6

Monitoring Observed Policy Outcomes 250 Learning Objectives 250

Introduction 251

Monitoring in Policy Analysis 251 Sources of Information 252 Policy-Relevant Causes and Effects 254

Figure 6.1 Causal Mechanism: Inputs, Activities, Outputs, Outcomes, and Impacts 255

Definitions and Indicators 255 Table 6.1 Inputs, Activities, Outputs, Outcomes, and Impacts in Three Issue Areas 256

Approaches to Monitoring 257

Table 6.2 Contrasts among Six Approaches to Monitoring 258

Social Systems Accounting 259 Table 6.3 Some Representative Social Indicators 261

Policy Experimentation 263 Social Auditing 268 Research and Practice Synthesis 270

Table 6.4 Sample Case-Coding Scheme: Representative Indicators and Coding Categories 271 Table 6.5 Research Survey Method: Empirical Generalizations, Action Guidelines, and Levels of Confidence in Generalizations 272

Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 273

Figure 6.2 Steps in Conducting a Systematic Review or Meta-Analysis 275

Methods for Monitoring 276 Table 6.6 Methods Appropriate to Five Approaches to Monitoring 276

Graphic Displays 277 Figure 6.3 Two Graphic Displays of Motor Vehicle Deaths 277 Figure 6.4 Spurious and Plausible Interpretations of Data 279 Figure 6.5 Bar Graph Showing Municipal Personnel Costs Per Capita for Cities with Growing and Declining Populations and for New York City 279 Table 6.7 Grouped Frequency Distribution: Number of Persons below the Poverty Threshold by Age Group in 1977 280 Figure 6.6 Histogram and Frequency Polygon: Number of Persons below the Poverty Threshold by Age Group in 1977 280 Figure 6.7 Lorenz Curve Showing the Distribution of Family Personal Income in the United States in 1975 and 1989 281

The Gini Index 282 Table 6.8 Computation of Gini Concentration Ratio for Violent Crimes Known to Police per 100,000 Persons in 1976 283

Tabular Displays 284 Index Numbers 284

Table 6.9 Poverty Rates in 1968, 1990, and 2006 by Age and Race 284 Table 6.10 Number of Drunk Driving Re-arrests in Treatment and Control Groups 285 Table 6.11 Use of Consumer Price Index (1982–1984 = 100) to Compute Purchasing Power Index 286 Table 6.12 Real Weekly Wages in the U.S., 2001–2010 287 Table 6.13 Maximum Concentration of Pollutants Reported in Chicago,

 

 

Detailed Contents xxiii

Philadelphia, and San Francisco for Averaging Times of 5 Minutes and 1 Year 288 Table 6.14 Implicitly Weighted Aggregative Quantity Index to Measure Changes in Pollutants in the United States, 1970–1975 289 Table 6.15 Duration of Exposure to Pollutants and Consequent Damage to Health and the Environment 290

Effect Sizes 291 Table 6.16 Calculation of Odds-Ratio (Using Data from Table 6.10) 292 Table 6.17 Calculation of Binary Effect Size Display (BESD) and Risk-Ratio (R-R) 292 Table 6.18 Calculation of Standardized Mean Difference (Cohen’s d) 293

Interrupted Time-Series Analysis 294 Figure 6.8 Interrupted Time Series Showing Effects and No Effects 295 Figure 6.9 Connecticut Traffic Deaths before and after the 1956 Crackdown on Speeding 296 Figure 6.10 Extended Time-Series Graph 297 Figure 6.11 Control-Series Graph 298 Figure 6.12 Threats to Validity as Objections to the Argument That the Speeding Crackdown Was Worthwhile 300

Regression-Discontinuity Analysis 300 Table 6.19 Worksheet for Regression and Correlation: Investment in Training Programs and Subsequent Employment of Trainees 301 Exhibit 6.1 SPSS Output for Table 6.19 302 Figure 6.13 Tie-Breaking Experiment 304

Table 6.20 Distribution of Cities by Scores on a Hypothetical Index of Pollution Severity 305 Table 6.21 Results of Regression- Discontinuity Analysis for Hypothetical Experimental and Control Cities 306 Exhibit 6.2 SPSS Output for Tables 6.13 and 6.14 308 Figure 6.14 Results of Regression- Discontinuity Analysis 310

Chapter Summary 311

Review Questions 311 Table 6.22 Crimes Committed in the United States: Offenses Known to Police per 100,000 Persons, 1985–2009 312 Table 6.23 Murders in New York City, 1985–2009 312 Table 6.24 Percentage Distribution of Family Personal Income in the United States by Quintiles, 1975, 1989, 2006, 2015 312

Demonstration Exercise 314

Bibliography 316 Case 6.1 Monitoring Policy Outcomes: The Political Economy of Traffic Fatalities in Europe and the United States 317

Exhibit C6.1 Fatalities and Other Variables in the United States, 1966–2015 318 Exhibit C6.2 Fatalities per 100,000 Persons, 1970–1976 319

CHAPTER 7

Evaluating Policy Performance 320 Learning Objectives 320

Introduction 321

Ethics and Values in Policy Analysis 321 Thinking about Values 322 Ethics and Meta-ethics 324 Standards of Conduct 326

 

 

Detailed Contentsxxiv

Descriptive Ethics, Normative Ethics, and Meta-ethics 327

Descriptive Value Typologies 327 Table 7.1 Basic Value Typology: Terminal and Instrumental Values 328

Developmental Value Typologies 328 Normative Theories 329 Meta-ethical Theories 330

Evaluation in Policy Analysis 331 The Nature of Evaluation 331 Functions of Evaluation 332 Criteria for Policy Evaluation 332

Table 7.2 Criteria for Evaluation 333

Approaches to Evaluation 333 Table 7.3 Three Approaches to Evaluation 334

Pseudo-evaluation 334 Formal Evaluation 334 Varieties of Formal Evaluation 335

Table 7.4 Types of Formal Evaluation 336

Decision-Theoretic Evaluation 338

Methods for Evaluation 341 Table 7.5 Techniques for Evaluation by Three Approaches 342 Table 7.6 Interview Protocol for User-Survey Analysis 342

Chapter Summary 343

Review Questions 343

Demonstration Exercise 343

Bibliography 343 Case 7.1 The Ethics of Cake Cutting 344 Case 7.2 The Economics of Morality: Evaluating Living Wage Policies 345 Table C7.2.1 Hourly Wages 345 Table C7.2.2 Monthly Expenses 346

Part III Methods of Policy Communication 347

CHAPTER 8

Developing Policy Arguments 348 Learning Objectives 348

Introduction 349

The Structure of Policy Arguments 349 Figure 8.1 Structure of a Policy Argument 350

Types of Knowledge Claims 351 Policy Maps 352

Figure 8.2 Argument Map—Privatizing Transportation 352 Exhibit 8.1 Identifying and Arranging Elements of a Policy Argument 353

Modes of Policy Argumentation 354 Argumentation from Authority 354

Table 8.1 Modes of Policy Argumentation with Reasoning Patterns 355

Argumentation from Method 356 Figure 8.3 Argumentation from Authority—Unintended Consequences of the U.S.–NATO Attack on Serbia 357 Figure 8.4 Argumentation from Method—Intransitivity of Preferences for Nuclear Power 358

Argumentation from Generalization 360 Figure 8.5 Argumentation from Generalization—A “False Positive” About the Success of Community Nutrition 361

Argumentation from Classification 362 Figure 8.6 Argumentation from Classification—Challenging Claims about Authoritarian Rule and Terrorism 363

Argumentation from Cause 363 Figure 8.7 Argumentation from Theoretical Cause—Competing Deductive-Nomological Explanations of the Cuban Missile Crisis 365 Figure 8.8 Argumentation from Practical Cause—Rival Explanations of the Effects of the Connecticut Crackdown on Speeding 368

Argumentation from Sign 369 Figure 8.9 Argumentation from Sign—Quantitative Indicators Such as Correlation Coefficients and P-Values Do Not “Prove” Causation 370

 

 

Detailed Contents xxv

Argumentation from Motivation 371 Figure 8.10 Argumentation from Motivation—Support for the Equal Rights Amendment 372

Argumentation from Intuition 373 Argumentation from Analogy 373

Figure 8.11 Argumentation from Intuition—A Counterintuitive Solution Avoids Certain Death 374 Figure 8.12 Argumentation from Analogy—The Equal Rights Amendment and False Analogy 375

Argumentation from Parallel Case 375

Figure 8.13 Argumentation from Parallel Case—The Dutch Model and False Parallel 376

Argumentation from Ethics 376 Figure 8.14 Argumentation from Ethics—Income Distribution and Justice as Fairness 377

Evaluating Policy Arguments 378 Some Hermeneutic Guidelines 379

Exhibit 8.2 Guidelines for Interpreting Arguments 380

Guidelines from Informal and Formal Logic 381

Table 8.2 Guidelines for Identifying Invalid Arguments and Fallacies 382

Chapter Summary 384

Review Questions 384

Demonstration Exercises 385

Bibliography 386 Case 8.1 Pros and Cons of Balkan Intervention 386 Case 8.2 Images, Arguments, and the Second Persian Gulf Crisis, 1990–1991 387

Figure C8.2.1 Senate Arguments Supporting and Opposing U.S. Involvement under Security Council Resolution 678 Authorizing Military Intervention to Force the Withdrawal of Iraq from Kuwait (November 29, 1990) 389

CHAPTER 9

Communicating Policy Analysis 391 Learning Objectives 391

Introduction 392

The Process of Policy Communication 392 Box 9.1 Producing Policy Analysis— A Poorly Managed Lumber Mill 392 Figure 9.1 The Process of Policy Communication 393

Tasks in Policy Documentation 394 Tasks in Oral Presentations and Briefings 396

Box 9.2 Contingent Communication 397

The Policy Issue Paper 398 Issues Addressed in the Policy Issue Paper 398

Table 9.1 Two Kinds of Policy Disciplines 399

Elements of the Policy Issue Paper 399 The Policy Memorandum 400 The Executive Summary 401 The Letter of Transmittal 401

Figure 9.2 Methods for Developing a Policy Memo or Issue Paper 401

Planning the Oral Briefing and Visual Displays 402

Policy Analysis in the Policymaking Process 404

Perceived Quality of Information 405 Perceived Quality of Methods 405 Complexity of Problems 406 Political and Organizational Constraints 406 Interactions among Policymakers and Other Stakeholders 407

Chapter Summary 407

Review Questions 407

Demonstration Exercises 408 Box 9.3 Checklist for an Oral Briefing 409

 

 

Detailed Contentsxxvi

Bibliography 410 Case 9.1 Translating Policy Arguments into Issue Papers, Position Papers, and Letters to the Editor—The Case of the Second Persian Gulf War 410

Figure C9.1.1 Sample Argument Map 411 Figure C9.1.2 Argument Map for a Position Paper 412 Figure C9.1.3 Argument Map for Policy Brief on the Invasion of Iraq 412 Figure C9.1.4 Argument Map for a Policy Issue Paper or Policy Memo on the Invasion of Iraq 413 Figure C9.1.5 Argument Map for a Letter to the Editor 414

Case 9.2 Communicating Complex Analyses to Multiple Audiences: Regulating Leaded Gasoline 415

Figure 9.3 Data samples with correlations but different regression lines 420 Figure C9.2.1 Lead Use in Gasoline Production and Average NHANES II Blood Lead Levels 430

Table C9.2.1 Basic Regression Model for Estimating the Effects of Gasoline Lead on Blood Lead 431 Table C9.2.2 Present Values of Costs and Benefits of Final Rule, 1985–1992 (Millions of 1983 Dollars) 432

APPENDIX 1

Policy Issue Papers 433

APPENDIX 2

Executive Summaries 440

APPENDIX 3

Policy Memoranda 444

APPENDIX 4

Planning Oral Briefings 450

Author Index 458

Subject Index 464

 

 

xxvii

My aim in writing the several editions of this book has been to produce a criti-cal synthesis of the field, while at the same time offering students, instructors, and practitioners a body of knowledge and skills that is applicable to real-world problems. This is not a text in the narrow and conventional sense of the term.

Ever since the publication of the first edition of Public Policy Analysis more than thirty-five years ago, I have become more and more convinced that the methodology of policy analysis rests or should rest on epistemological foundations that differ from those of the disciplines of which policy analysis is composed. For this reason, I continue to define policy analysis as an applied social science discipline that employs multiple methods of inquiry to solve practical problems.

What this means is that the methodology of policy analysis cannot be reduced to the theories and analytical routines of microeconomics, because solutions for practical prob- lems demand much more than the analysis of rational choice, expected utility, and oppor- tunity costs. By the same token, the methodology of policy analysis cannot be reduced to the study of politics, because solutions for practical problems require more than the analy- sis of power, rule, and authority or who gets what, when, and how. Much more is involved. Finally, because a principal aim of policy analysis is to improve policies, the methodology of policy analysis cannot be reduced to an academic spectator sport in which knowledge is prized for its own sake.

In this 6th edition, I have tried to employ a simplified style of writing, choose cases based on real-world analytical practices, and create visual displays that make complex ideas understandable. Case materials now include issues in foreign policy and interna- tional security as well as domestic issues of environmental justice, urban economics, trans- portation, health, and traffic safety. Advanced graphics for mapping and evaluating policy arguments are included in order to cultivate critical thinking skills in areas ranging from expert forecasting and statistical analysis to theories of environmental justice. The book provides students with marketable skills in communicating policy analysis by writing pol- icy memos, position papers, and other products of structured analytical writing. Finally, new review questions and demonstration exercises emphasize active rather than passive learning.

Special instructional devices and learning strategies are again employed throughout the book:

 Advance organizers. The book uses advance organizers, especially visual displays, to introduce students to the rationale and application of methods. The advance organizer for the book as a whole is the functional model of policy analysis presented in the first chapter.

PREFACE

 

 

Prefacexxviii

 Learning objectives. At the beginning of each chapter is a statement of the learning objectives that students should be able to attain by reading the chapter and completing its study questions and demonstration exercises. These objectives are stated in terms of the acquisition of knowledge and skills to do or perform something—that is, behaviorally anchored learning objectives that involve recognizing, defining, understanding, explaining, predicting, evaluating, and applying. By stating learning objectives in this way, the emphasis is on active rather than passive learning, on application rather than memorization.

 Review questions. Knowledge and skills must be reinforced. For this reason, review questions are provided at the end of each chapter. The review questions address higher-order knowledge and skills (e.g., explaining or applying) as well as lower-order knowledge and skills (e.g., calculating or estimating). Review questions may be used by students for self-study and by instructors who are developing written assignments, examinations, and tests.

 Demonstration exercises. Knowledge and skills are not acquired or retained without frequent opportunities for application to real-world problems. For this reason, each chapter contains opportunities to demonstrate the application of knowledge and skills to practical problems. The attempt is to draw students away from “blackboard policy analysis” into the real world of messy problems.

 Cases. Cases in policy analysis are the focus of the demonstration exercises. Cases span a number of issue areas including foreign policy and counter-terrorism, transportation policy, occupational health and safety, and urban policy. Some cases are primarily conceptual; most are methodological in nature.

 Bibliographies. In addition to literature cited in footnotes, each chapter is accompanied by a bibliography keyed to the subject matter of that chapter. I have attempted to include literature that is representative of many of the most important recent and classical developments in public policy analysis.

 Guidelines for written and oral communication. Students who master methods almost always face difficulties when they are faced with translating and communicating the results of analysis. For this reason, there is an emphasis on writing issue papers, policy memoranda, and position papers, and planning oral briefings. Appendices present step-by-step guidelines and checklists.

 Argument maps. Analysis is about making and understanding policy arguments. This edition uses argument maps created with Rationale, an innovative argument mapping program available at www.reasoninglab.com. Elsewhere I have expressed my gratitude to Professor Tim van Gelder, one of the originators of the program, for his help.

 Website. A special website (www.routledge.com/9781138743847) supports users of this book by providing slides keyed to each chapter and data sets related to cases covered in the chapters. Many of the slides can serve as teaching notes.

 Argument Mapping Software. Users of this book may wish to purchase argument mapping software (Rationale 2) by going to www.reasoninglab.com. Educational discounts are available.

 

 

xxix

I would not have begun this ambitious multidisciplinary project without the encour-agement of the late Paul F. Lazarsfeld, who many years ago challenged me to inves-tigate what he called the “policy sciences movement.” Lazarsfeld, one of a handful of premier applied social scientists of the twentieth century, was skeptical about the breadth of the enterprise, as it had been sketched by Harold Lasswell, Daniel Lerner, and others. Its aims seemed to him unwisely all-encompassing and grand, a criticism also held by Charles Lindblom and a number of other policy specialists. Lazarsfeld, it should be said, did not self-identify as a sociologist, but as an applied social scientist with multidiscipli- nary commitments. For this reason, he was University Professor of Social Science (not Sociology) at the University of Pittsburgh.

Some ten years later, we made an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to fill Lazarsfeld’s vacant chair with another premier applied social scientist, Donald T. Campbell, who had virtually revolutionized the methodology of the applied social sciences in the twentieth century. Campbell, like Lazarsfeld, did not self-identify primarily with his original dis- cipline, which was social psychology, but viewed himself as a multidisciplinary applied social scientist specializing in program and policy evaluation, as well as the philosophy and sociology of science. Had he joined us, Campbell would have been a University Pro- fessor of Social Science (not Psychology) at the University of Pittsburgh.

Campbell’s mentorship at a critical stage in my professional life some thirty years ago had a profound effect on the way I think about the strengths and limitations of policy analysis, program evaluation, and the applied social sciences. His imprint can be seen throughout this book.

At about the same time, I was asked to join a team of faculty who were developing curricular materials on policy analysis for practitioners in local governments. Under the leadership of Blue Wooldridge of the National Technical Information Service, now with Virginia Commonwealth University, the group had wisely contracted specialists in learn- ing theory and curriculum development, including Doris Gow and Jyotsna Vasudev, who were brought into the project. I learned from them the important pedagogical lesson that abstract subjects such as policy analysis can be more effectively taught by focusing on behaviorally defined learning objectives and what universities now teach under the rubric of distance learning. I am grateful to them for making me see that much of the literature we assign in courses is not easily or successfully tied to learning outcomes, which means that we often cannot say why we want students to read the materials we assign. This was an embarrassing revelation.

I have been fortunate to meet and work with colleagues who changed my mind about many things, including the important role that the philosophy and sociology of science play in the applied social sciences. These colleagues include Ian I. Mitroff, Burkart Holzner, and my former student and now professor, Bahman Fozouni, who introduced me to yet other colleagues in the Center for History and Philosophy of Science at the

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

 

 

Acknowledgementsxxx

University of Pittsburgh. I learned much about the pragmatic importance of policy analysis and the applied social sciences from Gerald Zaltman, Robert F. Rich, Thomas D. Cook, and the late Carol H. Weiss, all of whom were and are committed to investigating and deliber- ately changing the conditions under which the social sciences may be used to solve practical problems. B. Guy Peters also taught me much about the need to link policy analysis with the field of governance and, particularly, policy design.

Faculty and students in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs (GSPIA), University of Pittsburgh, have helped me improve my thinking, writing, and teaching. They include Alex Weilenmann, Louise Comfort, Dipak Gupta, Steve Coulthart, Tom Pavlak, John Mendeloff, Ilia Murtazashvili, Jennifer Murtazashvili, Hector Correa, Michael Sabath, Soumana Sako, Sam Overman, Tony Cahill, Mary Jo Dukes, Sofian Effendi, Kevin Kearns, S. Laurel Weldon, Dave Miller, Ralph Bangs, Jan Jernigan, Neda Milevska, Phil Murphy, Keun Namkoong, Andrea Hegedus, and Phil Williams.

In the past thirty-five years, this book has been used in training, certificate, and degree programs in universities, think tanks, and governments in this country and abroad. Transla- tions into Arabic, Chinese, Indonesian, Korean, Macedonian, Romanian, Russian, Ukrain- ian, and Spanish are completed or under way. The book has been used in training programs and projects in countries of the European Union, Southeastern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and Latin America. The revisions incorporated in this edition reflect some of what I have learned from the participants and organizers of these programs.

I am also grateful to students and faculty at the Graduate Center for Public Policy and Management in Skopje, Macedonia, an innovative but now inactive institution with some of the best students I have ever taught. I also want to thank reviewers of this and previous editions. In addition to anonymous reviewers, they include David Nice of Washington State University, David Houston of the University of Tennessee at Knoxville, Louise Comfort of the University of Pittsburgh. Sheila Kelly, Lien Rung-Kao, Sujatha Raman, Eric Sevigny, Kate Freed, Bojana Aceva-Andonova, Erin McGrath, Alla Golovina Khadka, and Jessica Reyes assisted in preparing materials for this and previous editions. I am also grateful for the editorial assistance of Integra Software Services Pvt Ltd, in Pondicherry, India, and the editors at Pearson. For this sixth edition I owe special thanks to Misha Kydd, Yvette M. Chin, Sophie Watson, and the publisher at Routledge, Laura D.H. Stearns.

 
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