solution

Suppose that I try to discern whether tea or milk is poured
first for 8 cups and make the correct identication 5 times.

 a. I say: “5 out of 8 is more than half, so one must
conclude that I’m doing better than random guessing.” How would you respond?
Use simulation results in your response.

b. With regards to my study on 8 cups of tea and milk, does
this prove that I cannot tell whether milk or tea is placed in the cup first?
Why or why not?

 c. Now suppose that someone gets 14 correct out of 16 cups.
Conduct a new simulation analysis to assess whether this result provides strong
evidence that the person actually has ability better than random guessing to
distinguish which was poured first. Be sure to describe which of the applet
inputs needs to change and why. Also summarize your conclusion and explain your
justification.

 
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